1. Executive summary
eThekwini’s real GDP increased by 0.35 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 after gains of 0.13 per cent in the third quarter and 0.48 per cent in the second quarter. The metro, therefore, ended the year on a firmer footing than it began. At a national level, South Africa’s GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and by 1.1 per cent for 2025 as a whole. Finance, trade and personal services supported national growth, while manufacturing remained a drag.
In eThekwini, finance was again the main growth engine in the fourth quarter, followed by trade and community services. Manufacturing remained the largest negative contributor, while construction, electricity and transport also softened. Despite the improved fourth quarter, eThekwini’s annual average GDP level in 2025 was broadly flat relative to 2024 (-0.05 per cent), suggesting that the metro’s recovery is still shallow and uneven.
The data points to a service-led recovery rather than a broad production rebound. That matters for eThekwini because the city’s long-term competitiveness still depends on stronger industrial activity, logistics efficiency and investment in productive infrastructure.
2. National context
South Africa closed 2025 with only a modest economic improvement. Stats SA reported that real GDP increased by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, following 0.3 per cent growth in the third quarter. The strongest positive support came from finance, trade and personal services, while manufacturing was the largest negative contributor. On the expenditure side, household final consumption expenditure rose by 1.2 per cent, and gross fixed capital formation by 1.3 per cent, but net exports and inventories weighed on growth. For the full year, national GDP growth reached 1.1 per cent, still below the pace needed to materially reduce unemployment and poverty.
3. What the eThekwini data shows
The metro-level dataset shows that eThekwini’s GDP at constant prices reached about R504 million (seasonally adjusted and annualised, in constant-price terms) in the fourth quarter of 2025. That was up by 0.35 per cent from the third quarter and by 0.64 per cent from the fourth quarter of 2024. The quarterly path matters: the year started weakly with a contraction in the first quarter, but momentum improved through the second, third and fourth quarters. This means the city ended 2025 with better short-term momentum than the annual average alone would suggest.
4. Sector dynamics in eThekwini
The fourth quarter outcome was clearly service-led. Finance made the largest positive contribution to growth, adding roughly 0.28 percentage points to the metro’s quarter-on-quarter expansion. Trade added about 0.10 percentage points, and community services just under 0.10 percentage points. These gains were partly offset by manufacturing, which subtracted around 0.09 percentage points, as well as smaller negative pulls from construction, electricity and transport. This pattern is broadly consistent with the national story, where finance and trade supported growth while manufacturing remained under pressure. For a city such as eThekwini, that matters because manufacturing and logistics are central to export capacity, employment quality and long-term competitiveness.
Finance was the main driver of the metro’s fourth quarter growth, with trade and community services providing additional support. Manufacturing remained the largest negative contributor. The recovery was therefore not broad-based; it was concentrated in service-oriented activity.
Community services and finance together accounted for nearly half of eThekwini’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025. Manufacturing still represented a sizeable share of output, but its recent weakness shows why growth remains fragile. Trade and transport also remain structurally important to the metro economy.
5. What this means for eThekwini
The latest data suggests that eThekwini entered 2026 with modest but improving momentum. That is the good news. The caution is that the recovery was led mainly by finance and consumer-facing services rather than a strong rebound in production sectors. For local economic strategy, three implications stand out. First, the city should continue to support business and household activity because consumption and services are still doing most of the work in holding growth positive. Second, it is important to focus on logistics, freight movement and infrastructure reliability, because transport and manufacturing weakness can quickly limit the city’s growth ceiling.
Third, investment promotion and infrastructure delivery remain essential if short-term service-led growth is to convert into a stronger and more inclusive expansion. In practical terms, a stronger metro growth trajectory will depend on whether eThekwini can unlock productivity in its traded sectors while maintaining momentum in finance, trade and services. The fourth quarter data shows improvement, but it also shows that the recovery remains shallow. The priority for 2026 is therefore to turn modest stabilisation into broader-based growth.
